Chinese Hello Group (NASDAQ: MOMO), owner of the social networks Momo and Tantan, is once again in the spotlight of investors. The company announced its revenue forecast for the third quarter – between 2.59 and 2.69 billion yuan. The numbers look neat and even align with Bloomberg’s consensus (2.64 billion), but behind them lies a troubling picture: the user base continues to decline rapidly.
In the second quarter, revenue came in at 2.62 billion yuan, down 2.6% year over year. Value-added services generated the lion’s share of income (2.58 billion), while “other services” contributed a modest 41 million. Formally, the company calls this quarter a “good one” – but investors are increasingly asking: can positive momentum really be sustained when the audience itself is shrinking before our eyes?
MAUs fell to 10.2 million, a 21% drop year over year. Paying users declined even more dramatically: Momo has only 3.5 million compared to 7.2 million in 2024, while Tantan dropped to 0.7 million from 1 million. This is no longer just statistics – it is a systemic challenge to the entire business model.
According to experts at Strategic Insights, published on YourDailyAnalysis, the main risk is that Hello Group is balancing on fragile ground. Profitability is still holding thanks to deep monetization of its core users, but the foundation – a broad user base – is eroding. Such an asymmetry in the long term threatens to undermine the entire structure.
At the same time, management is showing discipline in cost control. Marketing expenses dropped to 347.3 million yuan, and R&D fell to 183.9 million. This signals that the company is trying to buy time: savings should help weather the audience decline and maintain margins. But the question remains – what comes next?
The experience of Western companies like Meta or Match Group shows that without new formats and products, it is almost impossible to stop user outflow. Hello Group risks transforming from a “social player” into a niche platform with a narrow but paying audience. For investors, this is a scenario with limited horizons: yes, in the short term quarterly forecasts look convincing, but long-term growth is highly uncertain.
YourDailyAnalysis conclusion: Hello Group today lives in a paradox – money is coming in, but users are leaving. For investors, this is the story of a company trying to prove that a “good quarter” does not yet mean a lost future. But the market will judge not by words, but by numbers – and the key metric is not revenue, but the ability to bring people back to the platform.
