At YourDailyAnalysis we note that September marked a turning point for Kenya: for the first time since April, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose above the threshold level of 50 points, signaling growth in the private sector. According to Stanbic Bank Kenya, the index reached 51.9 compared to 49.4 the previous month. For a country that faced mass protests and economic disruptions in the second quarter, this growth is a key indicator of the beginning of recovery.
However, nuances matter. As we emphasize at YourDailyAnalysis, despite overall improvement, the construction sector remains the weak link of the economy. Output there contracted most sharply, reflecting structural challenges: rising material costs, political instability, and low investment activity continue to weigh on the industry.
At the same time, Kenya’s broader economy shows resilience: official data indicates GDP grew 5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, up from 4.6% a year earlier. At YourDailyAnalysis we see that domestic demand and a revival in services and agriculture were the main drivers of this growth.
Stanbic economists highlight that the improvement in business conditions in September signals the start of a recovery phase following political turmoil. At YourDailyAnalysis we agree with this view, but stress that recovery remains fragile and largely depends on political stability in the coming months, as well as the government’s ability to sustain infrastructure projects, especially in construction.
Our forecast: Kenya has a chance to maintain a growth trajectory in the 4.5–5.5% range over the next quarters, provided no new internal shocks emerge. At YourDailyAnalysis we believe investors should focus on sectors with the strongest potential-agriculture, fintech, and services-where recovery will be most dynamic. The construction sector, by contrast, will remain under pressure and is unlikely to become a growth driver in the short term.
The conclusion is clear: a September PMI above 50 points is a positive signal, but not a guarantee of long-term expansion. At Your Daily Analysis we underline that sustainable growth in Kenya requires a balance between economic policy, investment attractiveness, and social stability. Only under these conditions can the country turn a local rebound into a lasting development trend.
