We at YourDailyAnalysis note that the U.S. housing market showed a modest rebound in September, with existing home sales rising to a seven-month high. According to the National Association of Realtors, total sales increased by 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, marking the highest level since February. However, our analysts emphasize that this recovery remains uneven – driven mainly by wealthier households, while affordability continues to constrain demand among middle- and lower-income buyers.
Despite mortgage rates dropping to a one-year low of 6.19%, the anticipated surge in housing demand has not materialized. We at YourDailyAnalysis believe that persistent economic uncertainty, coupled with stagnation in the labor market and the impact of import tariffs, continues to weigh on consumer confidence. Many potential buyers are still postponing purchases, while existing homeowners are largely taking advantage of lower rates to refinance rather than enter the market anew.
According to our housing experts, sales growth has been concentrated in the high-end segment. Homes priced above $1 million saw a 20.2% jump compared to last year, while sales in the $750,000–$1 million range increased by 14.4%. Meanwhile, the more affordable $100,000–$250,000 segment grew by just 6%. “Affordability has improved from its worst levels,” notes one of our analysts, “but remains near historically unfavorable readings, leaving many first-time buyers sidelined.”
The imbalance between supply and demand is becoming increasingly visible. Inventory levels rose 14% year-over-year to 1.55 million units, still below pre-pandemic levels. We in YourDailyAnalysis view this increase as a step toward normalization, but warn that higher inventories are not translating into easier buying conditions. A report from Redfin cited a 36.7% gap between sellers and buyers, highlighting persistent weakness in purchasing power despite growing supply.
Regional dynamics remain mixed. Sales climbed across the Northeast, South, and West, while the Midwest saw a slight decline. The YourDailyAnalysis macro team suggests that this pattern reflects broader demographic and economic shifts – with coastal and southern markets attracting investment, while industrial regions continue to face labor and wage stagnation.
The median existing home price reached $415,200, up 2.1% year-over-year, underscoring that price corrections remain limited. Homes typically stayed on the market for 33 days, compared to 28 days a year earlier, suggesting a slower pace of transactions despite broader inventory availability. First-time buyers made up 30% of sales – still far below the 40% threshold that indicates a healthy, sustainable housing market.
We at Your Daily Analysis believe the coming quarters will determine whether the housing market’s current momentum can translate into lasting recovery. The expected further decline in mortgage rates and eventual stabilization of the job market could revive demand, but the affordability gap remains a structural challenge. Without significant wage growth or fiscal support measures, the market risks becoming increasingly polarized between high-income buyers and households priced out of ownership.
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